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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,900 · October 31, 2023 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The market ended with a Perene Index of 9.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state8/100Today ▲ +8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite48/100Today ▲ +10
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2022
    Ibovespa that day98,542 pts
    what happened in 6 months110,031 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2018
    Ibovespa 77,240 → 88,624 pts (+15% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 64 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +2.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 50% · median +2.8%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +5.5%
  • 12M: higher 75% · median +11.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-11, 2022-12, 2021-11 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2017Perene 8 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
  3. September 30, 2000Perene 9
  4. November 30, 2000Perene 7
  5. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
  6. November 30, 2021Perene 9 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +5.5% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 113,144 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,900 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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