Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,420 · November 30, 2021 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The mood worsened for the fifth straight session. The session ended with the Perene at 9.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state9/100Today ▾ -91
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite39/100Today ▾ -5
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2020
    Ibovespa that day95,587 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months119,710 pts (+25%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2016
    Ibovespa 61,906 → 62,450 pts (+1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 55% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2000Perene 9
  2. October 31, 2017Perene 8 · risk-on
  3. September 30, 2009Perene 10
  4. October 31, 2023Perene 8 · defensive
  5. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2020Perene 11 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 101,915 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,420 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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