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Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 6,022 · April 30, 2024 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The day's reading came in at 10.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state7/100Today ▲ +4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite14/100Today ▾ -11
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,742 pts
    the archive suggested+9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,340 pts (+11%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2019
    Ibovespa 107,220 → 79,065 pts (-26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 55% of the time — median +1.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 50% · median +0.6%
  • 6M: higher 75% · median +7.6%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +22.7%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2021-10, 2018-09, 2022-01 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2000Perene 7
  2. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
  3. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  5. October 31, 2023Perene 8 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2017Perene 8 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7.6% over six months, with 75% positive episodes (n=8).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 125,924 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,022 · Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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