Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,100 · August 20, 2024 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The market ended with a Perene Index of 100.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite54/100Today ▾ -20
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJanuary 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day97,394 pts
    the archive suggested+13% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months100,098 pts (+3%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2019 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 54 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +4.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 136,087 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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