Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 4,719 · January 31, 2019 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now the top of the scale. The Perene Index eased to 89. In the index's internal move, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state92/100Today ▾ -8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite88/100Today ▲ +21
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day77,891 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months74,553 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2013
    Ibovespa 51,245 → 54,273 pts (+6% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 42 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2014Perene 92 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2003Perene 93
  3. October 31, 2018Perene 93 · neutral
  4. July 31, 2016Perene 91 · neutral
  5. October 31, 2014Perene 93 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2025Perene 91 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 97,394 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,719 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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