Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,565 · July 3, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 33 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session improved the market's mood. The market ended with a Perene Index of 100.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite33/100Today ▲ +6
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move75/100Today ▲ +5
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 33) and recent move (75) diverge.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 56% · median +1.6%
  • 6M: higher 68% · median +6%
  • 12M: higher 68% · median +2.4%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-06, 2023-05, 2023-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +6% over six months, with 68% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 174,070 pts, +24.7% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,565 · Regime defensive · for 33 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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