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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,271 · April 30, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The close took the Perene Index to 90.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state91/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite78/100Today ▲ +16
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (91) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day132,697 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months125,662 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2020
    Ibovespa 95,056 → 118,558 pts (+25% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 57% · median +0.1%
  • 6M: higher 57% · median +0.7%
  • 12M: higher 83% · median +14.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-11, 2024-08, 2023-08 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2016Perene 91 · neutral
  2. January 31, 2019Perene 92 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2014Perene 92 · defensive
  4. December 31, 2014Perene 90 · neutral
  5. December 31, 2023Perene 90 · neutral
  6. June 30, 2023Perene 89 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +0.7% over six months, with 57% positive episodes (n=7).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 135,067 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,271 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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