Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,569 · July 9, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 39 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index settled at 95 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state95/100Today ▲ +27
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite39/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move76/100Today → 0
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 39) and recent move (76) diverge.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +3.8%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +4.8%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +1.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-12, 2014-11, 2014-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  2. November 30, 2002Perene 95
  3. April 30, 2003Perene 95
  4. May 31, 2003Perene 94
  5. December 31, 2001Perene 94
  6. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.8% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 172,742 pts, +23.8% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,569 · Regime defensive · for 39 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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