Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,568 · July 8, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 38 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to constructive ground. The session ended with the Perene at 68.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state68/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite43/100Today ▾ -3
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move76/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 43) and recent move (76) diverge.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day138,855 pts
    the archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months160,897 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2020
    Ibovespa 108,888 → 129,787 pts (+19% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveAugust 2000
    Ibovespa 17,347 → 16,123 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →

In 70 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +6.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 68% · median +4.7%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +4.8%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +1.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2015-02, 2022-01, 2014-12 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2014Perene 68 · neutral
  2. April 30, 2007Perene 68
  3. October 31, 2007Perene 68
  4. October 31, 2025Perene 69 · defensive
  5. January 31, 2003Perene 68
  6. July 31, 2018Perene 67 · neutral
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.8% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 170,653 pts, +20.6% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,568 · Regime defensive · for 38 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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