Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.
Edition no. 344 · July 8, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 189 days
Structural mood (Ânima 43) and recent move (76) diverge.
Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.
- ●A year agoJune 30, 2025Ibovespa that day138,855 ptsthe archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. medianwhat happened in 6 months160,897 pts (+16%)Reread the edition of June 30, 2025 →
- ○Five years agoNovember 2020Ibovespa 108,888 → 129,787 pts (+19% in 6m) · reread →
- ○First time in the archiveAugust 2000Ibovespa 17,347 → 16,123 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →
In 66 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +6.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →
- 3M: higher 68% · median +4.7%
- 6M: higher 56% · median +4.8%
- 12M: higher 60% · median +1.5%
Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2015-02, 2022-01, 2014-12 · how the analogs are built →
Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.8% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).
Observed distribution, not a forecast.
- Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, below its historical norm
- Ibovespa: 170,653 pts, +20.6% in 12 months
The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.
Regime defensive · for 189 days
Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents