Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.
Edition no. 555 · July 10, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 71 days · reconstructed essentials
The session put the Perene Index back at 95. Financials lost relative strength.
Structural mood (Ânima 39) and recent move (76) diverge.
Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.
- ●A year agoApril 30, 2025Ibovespa that day135,067 ptsthe archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. medianwhat happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
- ○Five years agoMay 2021Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
- ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →
In 62 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →
Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.
The global backdrop is calibrating and the intermarket moderate risk-off.
Observed distribution, not a forecast.
- Ibovespa: 172,742 pts
The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.
Regime defensivo · for 71 days
Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →