Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,629 · October 2, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 124 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market returned to an appetite extreme. The Perene Index rose to 100.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite43/100Today ▲ +5
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move46/100Today ▲ +11
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (100) while the month regime still reads defensive.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoMay 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day126,216 pts
    what happened in 6 months100,775 pts (-20%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 192,115 pts, +31.3% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,629 · Regime defensive · for 124 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-10-01all editions · Observatory