Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,628 · October 1, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 123 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

Market sentiment worsened. Today, the Perene Index closed at 88.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state88/100Today ▲ +4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite38/100Today ▾ -2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move35/100Today → 0
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (88) while the month regime still reads defensive.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJanuary 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day112,388 pts
    the archive suggested+12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months103,362 pts (-8%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2022 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 55 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +3.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2008Perene 88
  2. November 30, 2004Perene 88
  3. July 31, 2001Perene 88
  4. June 30, 2019Perene 88 · risk-on
  5. October 31, 2022Perene 88 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 187,197 pts, +28.7% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,628 · Regime defensive · for 123 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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