Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 581 · May 13, 2002 · reconstructed essentials

The session put the Perene Index back at 1. The market remains in extreme risk-off.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state1/100Today ▲ +1
how to read?
History favored declines — without unanimity.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●First time in the archiveSeptember 30, 2000
    Ibovespa that day15,559 pts
    what happened in 6 months14,719 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2000 →

In 8 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 38% of the time — median -9.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  2. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  3. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  4. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  5. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 12,002 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2002-05-07all editions · Atlas2002-05-31 · next edition →