Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition of June 30, 2002 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. The Perene Index rose to 42.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state42/100
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2001
    Ibovespa that day14,650 pts
    what happened in 6 months13,147 pts (-10%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2001 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 5 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 20% of the time — median -17% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2007Perene 42
  2. April 30, 2002Perene 42
  3. May 31, 2004Perene 42
  4. January 31, 2020Perene 43 · risk-on
  5. February 28, 2013Perene 43 · risk-on
  6. January 31, 2023Perene 44 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 11,139 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

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