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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,713 · January 31, 2023 · Regime defensivo · for 31 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market's mood improved. The close took the Perene Index to 44.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state44/100Today ▲ +6
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite68/100Today ▲ +37
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day103,922 pts
    the archive suggested+22% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months98,295 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2018
    Ibovespa 84,913 → 81,435 pts (-4% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveFebruary 2000
    Ibovespa 17,660 → 17,414 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 62 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 73% of the time — median +7.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 75% · median +5.7%
  • 6M: higher 75% · median +14.6%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +27.7%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-11, 2016-02, 2016-06 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2020Perene 44 · risk-on
  2. August 31, 2016Perene 45 · neutral
  3. August 31, 2010Perene 45 · risk-on
  4. August 31, 2025Perene 45 · defensive
  5. September 30, 2018Perene 45 · neutral
  6. February 28, 2013Perene 43 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +14.6% over six months, with 75% positive episodes (n=8).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 113,532 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,713 · Regime defensivo · for 31 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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