Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 4,968 · January 31, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Market sentiment worsened. Today, the Perene Index closed at 36.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state43/100Today ▾ -53
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite33/100Today ▾ -20
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 28, 2019
    Ibovespa that day95,584 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months100,626 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2015
    Ibovespa 53,031 → 44,915 pts (-15% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 52 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +2.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 57% · median +5%
  • 6M: higher 57% · median +11.7%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +12.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-05, 2017-04, 2018-04 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2013Perene 43 · risk-on
  2. January 31, 2023Perene 44 · defensive
  3. May 31, 2004Perene 42
  4. August 31, 2007Perene 42
  5. June 30, 2002Perene 42
  6. April 30, 2002Perene 42
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +11.7% over six months, with 57% positive episodes (n=7).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 113,761 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,968 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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