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Brazil market regime

Edition of February 29, 2004 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. Today, the Perene Index closed at 34.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state33/100
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2003
    Ibovespa that day12,973 pts
    what happened in 6 months21,807 pts (+68%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2003 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 13 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 46% of the time — median -0.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2009Perene 33
  2. July 31, 2002Perene 33
  3. March 31, 2001Perene 33
  4. January 31, 2000Perene 33
  5. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
  6. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 21,755 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

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