Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of March 31, 2018 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session put the Perene Index back at 30. The scene holds in risk-off.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state32/100Today ▲ +32
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite56/100Today ▲ +10
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2016
    Ibovespa that day59,589 pts
    the archive suggested+45% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months62,470 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2016 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2013
    Ibovespa 55,910 → 55,073 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 48 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
  2. February 29, 2004Perene 33
  3. June 30, 2021Perene 31 · risk-on
  4. July 31, 2002Perene 33
  5. March 31, 2001Perene 33
  6. February 28, 2025Perene 31 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 85,366 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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