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Brazil market regime

Edition of October 31, 2009 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. Today, the Perene Index closed at 33. Utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state33/100
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2008
    Ibovespa that day49,541 pts
    what happened in 6 months44,391 pts (-10%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2008 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2005
    Ibovespa 24,351 → 26,789 pts (+10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 22 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +7.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2002Perene 33
  2. March 31, 2001Perene 33
  3. January 31, 2000Perene 33
  4. February 29, 2004Perene 33
  5. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
  6. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 61,546 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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