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Brazil market regime

Edition no. 106 · March 23, 2005 · reconstructed essentials

The market returned to a defensive extreme. The day closes at 0, extreme risk-off.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2004
    Ibovespa that day19,607 pts
    what happened in 6 months23,052 pts (+18%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2004 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 14 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +7.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 26,248 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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