Brazil market regime

Edition no. 1,720 · December 6, 2006 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to an appetite extreme. The index reads 94 — stretched risk-on.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▾ -4

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoSeptember 30, 2005
Ibovespa that day31,584 pts
what happened in 6 months39,053 pts (+24%)
Reread the edition of September 30, 2005 →
○Five years agoDecember 2001
Ibovespa 13,872 → 10,524 pts (-24% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 17 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 71% of the time — median +7.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 43,096 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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