Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 1,775 · March 1, 2007 · reconstructed essentials

The Perene Index returned to the low end of the scale, now at 7. The backdrop remains in capitulation territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state7/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2006
    Ibovespa that day36,530 pts
    what happened in 6 months41,327 pts (+13%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2006 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2002
    Ibovespa 8,623 → 12,006 pts (+39% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 17 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +7.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
  2. November 30, 2000Perene 7
  3. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
  4. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  6. October 31, 2023Perene 8 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 43,517 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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