Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,134 · September 30, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

After several flat days, the day registered movement. The Perene Index rose to 6.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state6/100Today ▲ +6
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite26/100Today → 0
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day107,220 pts
    the archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months79,065 pts (-26%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2015
    Ibovespa 46,626 → 48,665 pts (+4% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 49 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +1.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  2. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
  3. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
  4. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  5. November 30, 2000Perene 7
  6. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 94,603 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,134 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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