Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 2,106 · July 4, 2008 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index returned to the low end of the scale, now at 1.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state1/100Today ▲ +1
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 28, 2007
    Ibovespa that day43,892 pts
    what happened in 6 months52,735 pts (+20%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2007 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2004
    Ibovespa 21,787 → 22,178 pts (+2% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 21 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 71% of the time — median +9.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  2. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  3. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  4. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  5. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 59,365 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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