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Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of September 30, 2012 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session's tone stayed as before.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state57/100
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2011
    Ibovespa that day52,324 pts
    the archive suggested-9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months62,923 pts (+20%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2011 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2007
    Ibovespa 55,371 → 62,081 pts (+12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 32 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 69% of the time — median +7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +0.6%
  • 6M: higher 40% · median -8.2%
  • 12M: higher 33% · median -5.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2011-09, 2011-05, 2010-12 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2017Perene 57 · neutral
  2. July 31, 2017Perene 57 · risk-on
  3. June 30, 2012Perene 57 · risk-on
  4. November 30, 2001Perene 58
  5. May 31, 2019Perene 56 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2016Perene 58 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -8.2% over six months, with 40% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 59,176 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory