Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 4,801 · May 31, 2019 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index moved with no clear bias, now at 60.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state56/100Today ▲ +56
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite45/100Today ▲ +22
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2018
    Ibovespa that day86,115 pts
    the archive suggested+17% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months86,886 pts (+1%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2014
    Ibovespa 51,606 → 52,276 pts (+1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 49 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +7.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 67% · median +9.2%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +13%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +19.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-12, 2018-11, 2017-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2021Perene 56 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2003Perene 55
  3. March 31, 2015Perene 55 · defensive
  4. September 30, 2017Perene 57 · neutral
  5. September 30, 2013Perene 55 · risk-on
  6. September 30, 2012Perene 57 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +13% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 97,030 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,801 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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