Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,235 · January 30, 2013 · reconstructed essentials

The Perene Risk Index moved at a defensive extreme, now at 6. The picture stays at a defensive extreme.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state6/100Today ▲ +6
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJuly 31, 2007
    Ibovespa that day54,183 pts
    what happened in 6 months59,076 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2007 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 29 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 55% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  2. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  3. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
  5. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  6. November 30, 2000Perene 7
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 59,337 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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