Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 3,236 · January 31, 2013 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session put the Perene Index back at 24. The backdrop remains in defensive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state27/100
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2012
    Ibovespa that day54,490 pts
    the archive suggested-1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months57,563 pts (+6%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2012 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2008
    Ibovespa 59,490 → 56,471 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 34 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 74% of the time — median +12.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2024Perene 27 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2005Perene 28
  3. June 30, 2003Perene 28
  4. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  5. February 28, 2023Perene 28 · defensive
  6. November 30, 2022Perene 26 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 59,761 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,236 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory