Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 139 · March 31, 2013 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. Today, the Perene Index closed at 52.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state53/100Today ▲ +52
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2011
    Ibovespa that day59,265 pts
    the archive suggested-9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months55,394 pts (-6%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2011 →
  2. ○Five years agoMarch 2008
    Ibovespa 60,968 → 46,028 pts (-24% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 38 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +4.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2024Perene 53 · defensive
  2. March 31, 2004Perene 54
  3. June 30, 2001Perene 53
  4. June 30, 2006Perene 54
  5. September 30, 2015Perene 52 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2000Perene 54
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 56,352 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 139 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every risk-on stretch in the Atlas →

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