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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,086 · July 31, 2024 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now neutral territory. Today, the Perene Index closed at 55. Utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state53/100Today ▾ -45
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite30/100Today ▲ +7
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day101,882 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months115,057 pts (+13%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2019
    Ibovespa 101,812 → 113,761 pts (+12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 66 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 70% of the time — median +4.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 89% · median +8.7%
  • 6M: higher 78% · median +6.6%
  • 12M: higher 88% · median +19.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-03, 2021-12, 2022-12 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2013Perene 53 · risk-on
  2. March 31, 2004Perene 54
  3. June 30, 2001Perene 53
  4. June 30, 2006Perene 54
  5. September 30, 2015Perene 52 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2000Perene 54
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +6.6% over six months, with 78% positive episodes (n=9).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 127,652 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,086 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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