Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of December 31, 2011 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The index reads 87 — stretched risk-on.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state61/100
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2010
    Ibovespa that day69,962 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months62,565 pts (-11%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2010 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2007
    Ibovespa 44,642 → 52,846 pts (+18% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 27 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2001Perene 61
  2. May 31, 2007Perene 62
  3. September 30, 2006Perene 62
  4. October 31, 2004Perene 62
  5. February 28, 2015Perene 62 · neutral
  6. December 31, 2003Perene 60
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 56,754 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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