Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 3,296 · April 30, 2013 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The picture is the same as yesterday's.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state38/100
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2012
    Ibovespa that day56,097 pts
    the archive suggested+12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months58,951 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2012 →
  2. ○Five years agoMarch 2008
    Ibovespa 60,968 → 46,028 pts (-24% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2006Perene 38
  2. June 30, 2024Perene 38 · defensive
  3. July 31, 2000Perene 38
  4. September 30, 2008Perene 38
  5. September 30, 2025Perene 38 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2019Perene 38 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 55,910 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,296 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory