Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 4,779 · April 30, 2019 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Utilities led. The day's reading came in at 36.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state38/100Today ▲ +34
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite46/100Today ▲ +18
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2018
    Ibovespa that day84,666 pts
    the archive suggested+30% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months78,624 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2014
    Ibovespa 51,626 → 51,049 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 51 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 69% of the time — median +9.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 75% · median +5.2%
  • 6M: higher 75% · median +13.9%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +16.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-08, 2017-03, 2018-04 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2006Perene 38
  2. June 30, 2024Perene 38 · defensive
  3. July 31, 2000Perene 38
  4. September 30, 2008Perene 38
  5. September 30, 2025Perene 38 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2013Perene 38 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +13.9% over six months, with 75% positive episodes (n=8).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 96,353 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,779 · Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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