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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of June 30, 2024 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The phase stays pinned to neutral ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state38/100Today ▲ +35
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite22/100Today ▾ -6
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day113,532 pts
    the archive suggested+15% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months120,586 pts (+6%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2019
    Ibovespa 96,353 → 108,187 pts (+12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 69 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +7.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 78% · median +11.8%
  • 6M: higher 89% · median +9.7%
  • 12M: higher 88% · median +24.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2021-12, 2023-01, 2023-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2006Perene 38
  2. July 31, 2000Perene 38
  3. September 30, 2008Perene 38
  4. September 30, 2025Perene 38 · defensive
  5. April 30, 2019Perene 38 · neutral
  6. April 30, 2013Perene 38 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +9.7% over six months, with 89% positive episodes (n=9).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 123,907 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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