Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,378 · September 30, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Over the session, utilities led. The session ended with the Perene at 34.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state38/100Today ▾ -61
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite78/100Today ▲ +6
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2024
    Ibovespa that day124,718 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months120,283 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2020
    Ibovespa 99,369 → 112,776 pts (+14% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 73 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 73% of the time — median +6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 80% · median +4.9%
  • 6M: higher 80% · median +8%
  • 12M: higher 89% · median +14.7%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-05, 2016-11, 2023-01 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2006Perene 38
  2. June 30, 2024Perene 38 · defensive
  3. July 31, 2000Perene 38
  4. September 30, 2008Perene 38
  5. April 30, 2019Perene 38 · neutral
  6. April 30, 2013Perene 38 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +8% over six months, with 80% positive episodes (n=10).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 146,237 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,378 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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