Brazil market regime — 2025-09-30

In 12 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 75% of the time after 6 months (median +7.1%, central range 3.4% to 11.8%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 67% · median +3.4% · central range -3.1%…+9.8% (n=12)
• 6M: higher 75% · median +7.1% · central range +3.4%…+11.8% (n=12)
• 12M: higher 73% · median +12.7% · central range +4.9%…+21.4% (n=11)

12 independent episodes · e.g. 2023-01, 2016-11, 2023-08, 2016-05, 2024-09 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios