Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 3,317 · May 31, 2013 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now capitulation territory. The day's reading came in at 0.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoFebruary 28, 2007
    Ibovespa that day43,892 pts
    what happened in 6 months52,735 pts (+20%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2007 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 35 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 29% · median -1.5%
  • 6M: higher 57% · median +0%
  • 12M: higher 40% · median -10.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2010-05, 2011-02, 2012-11 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +0% over six months, with 57% positive episodes (n=7).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 53,506 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,317 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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