Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,379 · August 28, 2013 · reconstructed essentials

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index marked 9 at the close.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state9/100Today ▲ +9

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoMay 31, 2012
Ibovespa that day54,490 pts
the archive suggested-1% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months57,563 pts (+6%)
Reread the edition of May 31, 2012 →
○Five years agoJuly 2007
Ibovespa 54,183 → 59,076 pts (+9% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 32 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 49,867 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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