Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 3,073 · May 31, 2012 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now risk-off. The close took the Perene Index to 21. In the sector picture, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state19/100
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2011
    Ibovespa that day58,536 pts
    the archive suggested+0% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months64,593 pts (+10%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2011 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2007
    Ibovespa 54,183 → 59,076 pts (+9% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 32 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +2.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  2. September 30, 2023Perene 20 · defensive
  3. April 30, 2005Perene 18
  4. July 31, 2025Perene 18 · defensive
  5. September 30, 2019Perene 21 · risk-on
  6. November 30, 2012Perene 21 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 54,490 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,073 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory