Brazil market regime — 2013-08-31

In 5 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 40% of the time after 6 months (median -8.8%, central range -9% to 7.1%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 60% · median +0.6% · central range -10.2%…+6.5% (n=5)
• 6M: higher 40% · median -8.8% · central range -9%…+7.1% (n=5)
• 12M: higher 25% · median -13.9% · central range -16%…-6.7% (n=4)

5 independent episodes · e.g. 2011-09, 2012-06, 2013-01, 2010-12, 2011-06 · 2-índices (Risco/Regime), z-dist<=0,85 — Ânima indisponível (<2016)