Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 167 · August 31, 2013 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now a neutral read. The Perene Index stopped at 50. In the sector distribution, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state62/100Today ▲ +54
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2012
    Ibovespa that day59,571 pts
    the archive suggested-8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months55,401 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2012 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2009
    Ibovespa 38,666 → 55,755 pts (+44% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveApril 2000
    Ibovespa 15,524 → 14,891 pts (-4% in 6m) · reread →

In 34 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +9.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +0.6%
  • 6M: higher 40% · median -8.8%
  • 12M: higher 25% · median -13.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2011-09, 2012-06, 2013-01 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2004Perene 62
  2. February 28, 2015Perene 62 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2007Perene 62
  4. September 30, 2006Perene 62
  5. July 31, 2013Perene 62 · risk-on
  6. September 30, 2010Perene 62 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -8.8% over six months, with 40% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 50,008 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 167 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every risk-on stretch in the Atlas →

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