Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 3,425 · October 31, 2013 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The environment stays anchored to constructive ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state84/100
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2012
    Ibovespa that day62,550 pts
    the archive suggested-9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months45,210 pts (-28%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2012 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2008
    Ibovespa 37,257 → 50,976 pts (+37% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 33 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 52% of the time — median +1.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 20% · median -12%
  • 6M: higher 20% · median -7.7%
  • 12M: higher 0% · median -17.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2012-03, 2012-06, 2011-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2003Perene 84
  2. May 31, 2023Perene 84 · defensive
  3. May 31, 2000Perene 85
  4. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2023Perene 85 · neutral
  6. October 31, 2015Perene 83 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -7.7% over six months, with 20% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 54,256 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,425 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory