Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of December 31, 2012 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

A lighter day on the reading. The Perene Index stopped at 78.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state79/100
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2011
    Ibovespa that day56,875 pts
    the archive suggested-13% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months52,481 pts (-8%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2011 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2008
    Ibovespa 63,489 → 55,162 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 29 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +7.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2011Perene 79 · risk-on
  2. July 31, 2015Perene 79 · defensive
  3. December 31, 2019Perene 79 · risk-on
  4. January 31, 2022Perene 79 · defensive
  5. June 30, 2000Perene 79
  6. April 30, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 60,952 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory