Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 318 · October 31, 2015 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The Perene Index stopped at 71.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state83/100Today ▾ -17
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (83) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2014
    Ibovespa that day54,629 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months57,197 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2010
    Ibovespa 71,561 → 64,622 pts (-10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
  2. May 31, 2023Perene 84 · defensive
  3. April 30, 2023Perene 82 · defensive
  4. September 30, 2022Perene 82 · defensive
  5. November 30, 2003Perene 84
  6. October 31, 2013Perene 84 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 45,869 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 318 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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