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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,794 · May 31, 2023 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. Today, the Perene Index closed at 84.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state84/100Today ▾ -13
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite47/100Today ▲ +10
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (84) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day111,351 pts
    the archive suggested+0% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,486 pts (+1%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2018
    Ibovespa 72,840 → 92,032 pts (+26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 52 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +8.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 75% · median +3.7%
  • 6M: higher 63% · median +1.9%
  • 12M: higher 86% · median +24.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2021-11, 2022-03, 2022-09 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2013Perene 84 · risk-on
  2. November 30, 2003Perene 84
  3. May 31, 2000Perene 85
  4. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2023Perene 85 · neutral
  6. October 31, 2015Perene 83 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +1.9% over six months, with 63% positive episodes (n=8).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 108,335 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,794 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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