Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,533 · April 11, 2014 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The picture stays at an appetite extreme.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state93/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoMarch 31, 2009
    Ibovespa that day40,926 pts
    what happened in 6 months60,459 pts (+48%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2009 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 35 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 54% of the time — median +3.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2005Perene 93
  2. October 31, 2014Perene 93 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2018Perene 93 · neutral
  4. August 31, 2003Perene 93
  5. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  6. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 51,867 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2014-04-08all editions · Observatory2014-04-17 · next edition →