Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 4,661 · October 31, 2018 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The prevailing mood stays upbeat. The day's reading came in at 97.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state93/100Today ▾ -7
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite61/100Today ▾ -3
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day77,891 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months74,553 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2013
    Ibovespa 54,256 → 54,053 pts (+0% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 41 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2005Perene 93
  2. October 31, 2014Perene 93 · defensive
  3. August 31, 2003Perene 93
  4. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2002Perene 94
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 87,424 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,661 · Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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