Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 3,672 · October 31, 2014 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an appetite extreme. The Perene Index stopped at 100.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state93/100Today ▲ +84
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (93) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2013
    Ibovespa that day54,256 pts
    the archive suggested-8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months54,053 pts (+0%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2013 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2009
    Ibovespa 54,766 → 62,763 pts (+15% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 35 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 54% of the time — median +1.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2005Perene 93
  2. October 31, 2018Perene 93 · neutral
  3. August 31, 2003Perene 93
  4. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2002Perene 94
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 54,629 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,672 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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