Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition of January 31, 2015 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to defensive ground. The day closes with the Perene Index at 15. In the index composition, utilities lost relative ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state16/100Today ▲ +16
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2014
    Ibovespa that day47,639 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months56,188 pts (+18%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2010
    Ibovespa 66,572 → 68,272 pts (+3% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 37 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 49% of the time — median +0% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 78% · median +10.7%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +1.9%
  • 12M: higher 83% · median +10.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-03, 2014-04, 2012-05 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2024Perene 16 · defensive
  2. July 31, 2007Perene 15
  3. January 31, 2010Perene 15
  4. December 31, 2024Perene 15 · defensive
  5. July 31, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2018Perene 15 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +1.9% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=9).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 46,908 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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