Brazil market regime — 2024-10-31

In 9 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 78% of the time after 6 months (median +7.9%, central range 3.2% to 12.7%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 89% · median +11.8% · central range +6.3%…+14.8% (n=9)
• 6M: higher 78% · median +7.9% · central range +3.2%…+12.7% (n=9)
• 12M: higher 100% · median +21.8% · central range +15.1%…+31.4% (n=8)

9 independent episodes · e.g. 2023-01, 2023-03, 2024-05, 2022-06, 2016-12 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios