Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,152 · October 31, 2024 · Regime defensivo · for 61 days · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Another day of pressure. The Perene Index stopped at 24.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state16/100Today ▾ -11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite14/100Today ▾ -17
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day113,144 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months129,210 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2019
    Ibovespa 107,220 → 79,065 pts (-26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 68 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +7.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 89% · median +11.8%
  • 6M: higher 78% · median +7.9%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +21.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-03, 2023-01, 2024-05 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2015Perene 16 · neutral
  2. July 31, 2007Perene 15
  3. January 31, 2010Perene 15
  4. December 31, 2024Perene 15 · defensive
  5. July 31, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2018Perene 15 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7.9% over six months, with 78% positive episodes (n=9).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 129,713 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,152 · Regime defensivo · for 61 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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