Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of May 31, 2015 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to neutral ground. The Perene Index stopped at 50.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state50/100Today ▾ -44
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2014
    Ibovespa that day51,606 pts
    the archive suggested-3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months52,276 pts (+1%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2010
    Ibovespa 63,047 → 69,346 pts (+10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 51% of the time — median +1.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2016Perene 50 · defensive
  2. January 31, 2018Perene 50 · risk-on
  3. May 31, 2002Perene 50
  4. March 31, 2002Perene 50
  5. April 30, 2017Perene 49 · risk-on
  6. January 31, 2024Perene 51 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 52,760 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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