Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of January 31, 2016 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to neutral ground. The day closes with the Perene Index at 54. In the index composition, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state50/100Today ▲ +46
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2015
    Ibovespa that day51,150 pts
    the archive suggested-8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months45,313 pts (-11%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2015 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2010
    Ibovespa 67,705 → 64,341 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 41 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +6.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2015Perene 50 · defensive
  2. January 31, 2018Perene 50 · risk-on
  3. May 31, 2002Perene 50
  4. March 31, 2002Perene 50
  5. April 30, 2017Perene 49 · risk-on
  6. January 31, 2024Perene 51 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 40,406 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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